Unlock 1.0: Sustained Demand Recovery to take time; Supply Revival to be Quicker

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Economic recovery in post-lockdown times will greatly depend on how quickly demand for consumption rises across India. The supply chain and logistics systems are expected to respond quickly to the unlocking of restrictions. This is expected to prop up supply to adequately match demand. 

The revival of demand may not be very quick since the pandemic’s impact has been immense. For example, auto demand in April is reported to have slipped to zero in some cases. Demand in the rural economy is expected to rise quicker as compared to urban centres. This could be due to some possible rise in incomes after an increase in allocation toward MNREGA. Major urban centres meanwhile continue to see limited activity due to higher Covid cases.

A pick up in trucking activities is expected to spike up demand for diesel consumption as trucking is supposed to account for 60%-70% of total consumption. 

There is some pent-up demand which could surface in this Unlock phase, thereby driving sales and hopefully, demand for truck transportation. WheelsEye suggests truckers to be patient – there will be some increase in business demand, but a sustained improvement will take some more time.

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